The Tuesday election results were interesting in many ways and were a story of two states. If you have only been following the New York special elections, it is likely that you believe that the red wave has subsided. This means that Democrats will defy history in the mid-terms. If you were to focus your attention on Florida, however, the GOP’s prospects are excellent.
You probably have both. Election analysts are predicting doom for Republicans in November if you keep tabs. Do you agree? That is the big question. Take a walk with me.
A special election in NY-19, currently held by a Democrat and winning by 11 points in 2020, is grabbing headlines in New York as a major bellwether. Marcus Molinaro, a “good” Republican who was expected to win, was the star of the show. Molinaro was an establishment approver, and hard worker, and was billed by GOP voters as the candidate they should support if they are to win future elections. However, Republicans didn’t turn out in support of him, particularly in rural areas.
It will be the reason for this that will be the focus of all the recriminations. Did Molinaro not provide enough excitement for the district’s voters? Was there another factor? It could be a combination of both. I believe I have seen others mention it. This is a special election, which will be redone in just over two months. Do you really want to be excited about going to the polls when it is meaningless? Particularly if you live in a state with no primary battles at the top (i.e. Other motivations for voting) are not relevant. Lee Zeldin won’t be able to beat Kathy Houchel by more than a dozen points in November.
Are you making excuses? My cope was established weeks ago over low-turnout special election in blue states. Isn’t it the same for the other side, choosing to ignore results that are against their narrative?
— Corey A. DeAngelis (@DeAngelisCorey) August 24, 2022
It is quite remarkable to me that GOP voters turned out in large numbers in Florida to elect dozens of conservatives to formerly liberal-held school districts. It is also important to note that the overall turnout of Republicans was higher than expected, surpassing 2018 by several percentage points. Governor. Ron DeSantis is a powerful force, which will lead to many wins in November that will compensate for losses in New York.
This is yet another example (I won’t gloat – PROMISE) of the reality that there is an organic level of interest in voting on primary day that is NOT wholly dependent on a competitive race for Governor and Senator. Which will be apparent when I post a comparison to 2018
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) August 24, 2022
What can we learn from these contradictory results? It means that the states are so polarized. It’s simply not possible to win Republican victories in deep-blue states in close elections. Nearly all of these special “bellwethers” have occurred in California, New York, or Minnesota. What does each state have in common? Mass emigration from red states. Republican voters are leaving and those who remain know that the status quo will continue.
Rural New York will not have the same enthusiasm as rural Ohio. This means that red states will become redder and blue states will get bluer. This may be a good thing in the grand scheme of things for Republicans, considering how Senate seats and House districts are distributed across the country.
The GOP can still blow this in November, probably not in the House but certainly in the Senate if they don’t take it for granted. These primaries have seen the same high turnout of Republicans, so it is important to repeat this and consolidate the national GOP message as we move into the September/October campaign period. Mitch McConnell’s decision to focus on candidate quality rather than candidate quality is not a way to win the midterms.
Also, forget about the noise and go out and vote. If you look hard enough, anyone can find a bellwether who fits their narrative. But, in the end, it’s all about who shows up to the polls when real bullets start flying. As the final stretch nears, Republicans should not stop trying to improve their efforts.