After a brief time in the summer when Democrats saw some improvement in their poll numbers and a slight momentum shift in direction after Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Democrats’ hopes of a “comeback of sorts” collided with harsh reality.
First, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings crashed to the ground. Independent voters also came out in support of Biden, hitting new lows within that key voting bloc. Additionally, independent voters expressed disapproval of his emphasis on abortion over economic issues such as inflation and the economy. These are the two biggest priorities for most voters, particularly closer to Election Day.
The Democratic party is also experiencing a Hispanic exodus, with increasing disapproval of the party’s “woke” approach in recent years. Both are unlikely to change anytime soon.
A new poll from the Wall Street Journal has shown a dramatic swing in suburban white women to Republicans over the past two months, a development that is sure to panic Democrat strategists.
There has been a shift in favor of the GOP among many voter groups, including Latino voters, women, and especially white suburban women. This group, which pollsters say makes up 20%, has shifted 26 percent away from Democrats since August’s Journal poll. The GOP now leads this group by 15 percentage points.
The poll found that generic voting favors Republicans over Democrats. This is a reverse of their August numbers.
New WSJ poll:
Generic Congressional Ballot: R +2
Last poll taken in August was D +3
Biden approval rating: 43/55https://t.co/Z1vmkPdTYJ
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 1, 2022
This brings back memories of the massive shift in education-minded voters we saw in Virginia, just one week before the gubernatorial race between Glenn Youngkin & Terry McAuliffe. In 2021, this was confirmation of a swing in McAuliffe’s support for Youngkin among white female voters.
It doesn’t take rocket scientists or polling experts to see that Democrats aren’t going to win the election when Hispanics, white suburban women, and independent voters, all of whom Democrats heavily depend on to deliver, are running from them.
The red wave is not just a wave. It is looking more like a massive political tsunami. If all the smoke and dust clears, then if polls have been consistent, Democrats will be the ones responsible for the disaster.