Andrzej Duda, the Polish President, and Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated Wednesday that the explosion that killed two Polish citizens may have been caused by an errant Ukrainian missile defense system rather than a Russian cruise missile.

Initial reports Tuesday that a Russian missile had hit Polish civilians caused a lot of drama. There were also allegations of a “false flag” operation by Ukraine and loss of bowels in the “World War III is imminent” group. Based on an earlier Associated Press story, my report was incorrect. The error was not solely that of the Associated Press. Although my thoughts were not as specific, they were similar to the thread.

Here is a photo of Poland’s RAT-31DL FADR radar at Łabunie.
This radar is 40 km from Przewodów, where the missiles exploded.
That radar is barely 10 years old and has a 11×7 m antenna. It is one of the best radars NATO has. And it feeds directly into the Polish Air Force’s
1/4 pic.twitter.com/yBiG3qqSHG

— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) November 16, 2022

where those missiles came from.

And the US has a Patriot battery at Rzeszów, which also covers the area of the missiles impacts.

The US knows EXACTLY where those missiles came from.

And there was an AWACS plane in the air… in short: Poland and Ukraine know that if they
3/4 pic.twitter.com/ztI1qb2Yv3

— Thomas C. Theiner (@noclador) November 16, 2022

I was surprised at the Ukrainian government’s initial reaction. They had to have known that NATO and Poland knew the truth. The Polish Foreign Ministry called the Russian ambassador for an explanation.

This is one of those instances when Twitter (like the MH-17 shootdown it seems increasingly likely that Iran accidentally fired down that Ukrainian airliner) was the Open Source Intelligence community, OSINT, deduced the answer hours prior to the official statement.

So what crashed in the village of Przewodów, Poland today?

With the cooperation of @blueboy1969 we analyzed the available photos of fragments and came to a clear conclusion that they belong to the 48D6 motor of the 5V55-series missile of the S-300 AD system- a Ukrainian one. pic.twitter.com/f0Ex3USLN8

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) November 15, 2022

Let’s get back to the story.

Yesterday, Poland demanded an emergency meeting of NATO under Article 4, which concerns violations of “territorial integrity, political independence, or security.” In light of the conclusion that it was a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile, that meeting has been canceled. That said, the realization that the war in Ukraine presents a real physical threat to all neighboring countries was underlined by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, who said, “Let me be clear: This is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”