Rep. Lauren Boebert, in a surprising move, announced via Facebook on Wednesday night that she would not be running for election to the third congressional district of Colorado.
She was facing a difficult re-election campaign and decided to run for the fourth district on the opposite side of the state. There’s also no guarantee that she will be the general election candidate in the fourth district, as there is a very crowded field of candidates awaiting her arrival.
Lauren Boebert, U.S. Rep., announced on Wednesday that she will not run for reelection in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District next year. Instead, she plans to run in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District. This district is located in the opposite part of the state. It is also more favorable to Republicans.
Boebert was elected to the 3rd district, which includes Colorado’s Western Slope and Pueblo in southeastern Colorado. He won last year by only 546 votes. The 4th district is located in Douglas County and includes Loveland as well as the rural Eastern Plains of Colorado.
According to an analysis of Colorado legislative staffers’ nonpartisan election results for 2016 to 2020, the 3rd District is 9 points to the Republicans while the 4th District is 27 points to the GOP. Boebert does not have to reside in the 4th District for him to represent it.
Ken Buck is the current representative of the fourth district. Buck is retiring. Buck is a moderate member of the Republican caucus. While the district should produce a Republican win in the general election, Boebert must get there first. It’s hard to say how palatable Boebert will be for an electorate that has sent someone like Buck to Washington.
In the past I have written about Boebert’s situation, stating that she would lose her re-election if she did not straighten up and fly correctly. It’s safe to say that I was right, given her preemptive surrender and desire for greener pastures. After she narrowly beat Adam Frisch in District 3 in 2022, (a margin of around 500 votes), and then went on to make herself less popular.
This is not a criticism of Boebert. I know that many Republicans are fans. This is a simple commentary on her situation. It will be interesting to see what happens in her district four primary and how many resources are mobilized for or against her. Donald Trump is sure to endorse her. But will that matter in a district like this? We’ll see.
Boebert’s move is a cynical one, but it is argued that she is helping the GOP, despite how cynical her motives may be (she admits to this in the video). Republicans have a much better chance to hold the District 3 seat by allowing someone new to run. This wasn’t the case as long as Boebert was in office.
Was there any backroom deal going on? This decision may have made the difference between keeping the majority in the House or losing it.
