China’s Potential Invasion of Taiwan: Can They Seize and Maintain Control?

It is hard to deny the fact that China’s attitude has changed in recent years. After all these years, it’s impossible to deny the fact that China still views Taiwan as an independent, rogue region and would love nothing more than for it to be placed under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). China has its own troubling issues: A failing economy, a declining population, and a corrupt totalitarian regime.

It doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t try to seize Taiwan at some point. Gabriel Honrada, a scribe at the Asia Times on Monday, takes us through China’s problems.

Timothy Heath, along with other authors in a RAND June 2023 analysis, notes that Taiwan’s vulnerability to defeat is in the first 90 days of an invasion by China.

Heath and other experts point out that due to Taiwan’s low durability and military disadvantages, an intervention by the US would be necessary to repel a Chinese attack within this timeframe. They note that without a US-led intervention, China’s vast military resources could easily subjugate Taiwan. Beijing views the island as a renegade territory.

Another way to interpret this is: “If China cannot take Taiwan within 90 days, then they are in serious trouble.” Can China even cross the strait to capture Taiwan? Can they supply their troops with fuel, ammunition, and beans? Professionals and amateurs alike study military logistics, but the latter is more important. Wars are won or lost based on logistics.

China may not be able to pull this off.

Asia Times reported in October 2023, that the People’s Liberation Army would need at least 300,000-400,000 troops to seize Taiwan after swift air and missile strikes to decapitate Taiwan’s civilians and military leaders.

If that fails, the PLA could send up to 2 million troops, including paramilitary and police personnel, to Taiwan to achieve a numerical advantage of three to one or five to one against the defender.

An advantage of three to one is the absolute minimum numerical advantage that an attacker can have when taking on a well-prepared defense. Then there is the problem of moving all those people and their equipment across the strait, as well as their vehicles.

Even a country like China faces a huge challenge. China is watching the Russia/Ukraine conflict closely, because despite having a material advantage over Russia, they have managed to achieve at best a standstill, or at worst a high-tech attrition war that will consume lives on both sides, like a nightjar-eating mosquito.

Wait! There’s more!

In a video released this month by Task and Purpose, it is noted that the PLA will require highly educated, tech-savvy personnel to operate its modernized equipment.

The report cites several factors that contribute to China’s shortage of military personnel. These include the Chinese cultural view of the military as an inferior career, the high rate of emigration, the increasing physical and mental conditions of potential recruits, and corruption within the PLA. It also mentions the impact of the One Child Policy, and the perception of hardships in military life compared to a lucrative civil career.

There is always a but, right? China has been aggressively building its navy for some time. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy, as it’s officially called, is currently unable to project power globally due to the lack of at-sea refueling. However, they can certainly use their frigate fleet to support an invasion against Taiwan.

Yes, China could take Taiwan. Both sides will pay a terrible price, but it is possible. If I were the leader of Taiwan, I’d be worried about the United States’ promise to help Taiwan, especially with the current directionless and feckless leadership. Taiwan’s defense plans should be based on the assumption that it will stand alone. In such matters, planning for the worst is the wisest thing to do.

But can China keep Taiwan? Taiwan may not have the Second Amendment or a centuries-old tradition of defiance as the United States, but there will still be a long-lasting resistance against the Communist invasion.

Can China take Taiwan? Most likely, but at a significant cost. Can they keep Taiwan? It’s not so clear.