The Russian Defense Ministry has published a statement announcing a change to Russia’s maritime border with Finland and Lithuania near Kaliningrad to “comply with modern geographic conditions,” as reported by TASS.

The Ministry proposed approving a set of coordinates for points from which the width of Russia’s adjacent zone is measured near the Baltic Sea coast and its islands, resulting in a change to the state border line in the Kaliningrad area. According to the draft government decree, the document states:

“If the draft of geographic coordinates of points determining the position of baselines is measured from the Russian Federation’s territorial sea, adjacent zone near the coast of Russia, and the Russian Federation islands in the Baltic Sea, the previously missing system of straight baselines in the southern part of Russian islands will be established, as will the use of relevant water areas as internal sea waters of the Russian Federation.”

The declaration also stated that Russia plans to alter international borders established in 1985.

However, the Defense Ministry’s announcement was quickly removed from public view, and Russian state-run media assured everyone that Russia had no intention of changing its Baltic border, regardless of what was previously published.

A military-diplomatic official told reporters, “There are no plans to change the size of the territorial waters, economic zone, continental shelf, and state border line in the Baltic of the Russian Federation.”

The declaration and subsequent retraction were met with skepticism, given the context of Putin’s war and the expansionist rhetoric of Putin and other Russian officials.

Nearly simultaneously with the announcement of unilateral changes to national borders with Finland, Lithuania, and Latvia, Russian border guards began removing channel boundary markers on the Narva River, which delineates the border between Russia and Estonia.

These manual border changes and the announcement on the Defense Ministry’s website of significant border adjustments are not coincidental. The timing coincides with the US, France, Germany, and other Western nations allowing Ukraine to use exported weapons to attack military targets in Russia.

This is reminiscent of 2015, when Russian troops and their South Ossetian ally moved border markers from South Ossetia into Georgia, ordering Georgians out of newly annexed territories. We do not know the exact reasons for the press announcement in TASS or the changes on the Defense Ministry’s website regarding borders with Lithuania and Finland. Nor do we understand why Russia altered the Narva River boundary markers without consultation. These actions appear to gauge NATO’s reaction to potential Russian territorial gains in Finland or the Baltic States. Jake Sullivan’s dismissive attitude toward Putin’s intentions will not suffice to deter NATO. The next steps could involve “little green men” and then Russian troops defending Russian minorities in Latvia, Estonia, and the Svalbard Archipelago, Norway.

As I’ve often said, you must listen to your enemies. Putin has repeatedly stated that he does not accept the borders created by the dissolution of the Soviet Union or even the Romanov Dynasty. Borders are not easily changed, and Putin might think that a small land grab in Latvia, Estonia, and Finland would not trigger a larger conflict but could potentially fracture NATO. This was his rationale for invading Ukraine.