Eight races in particular are worth watching closely between now and the end of November. They have the potential to change control of U.S. Senate hands from Democrat to Republican.
One of them is Montana. Democrat Sen. Jon Tester, a veteran of Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Navy SEAL, is fighting for his political life with Republican nominee Tim Sheehy. Sheehy has received the support of Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump, in a state that voted for the former POTUS in 2020.
Sheehy has been ahead of Tester in polls since June. The RealClearPolitics average lead is just over five percentage points.
Tester’s most recent poll, conducted by Fabrizio-Ward/David-Binder-Research for AARP, shows him trailing Sheehy by 8 points in a 4-way race, and 6 points behind Sheehy when it comes to a 2-way race.
Sheehy’s popularity is boosted by the popularity of Donald Trump, the former president, who has a 56-41 percent lead over Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump is 9 points ahead of independent voters. Tester has a slight lead among independent voters.
In their memo, the bipartisan team Fabrizio and David Binder Research concluded that “Trump is ahead of Sheehy in almost every age group and partisan group. But Tester does not outperform Harris enough to overcome this large gap.” The memo also stated, “Tester’s and Harris’s vote shares among Democrats have nearly reached their maximum.”
If Sheehy wins this race, it will be nearly impossible for the Democrats to maintain control of the Senate.
Most signs indicate that whichever party wins Montana, will likely control the Senate by 2025.
Democrats must win eight of the remaining competitive seats to maintain a 50-50 Senate margin. They can also hope that Tim Walz, the VP, will be able to break a tie.
Montana is the most dangerous state for Democrats, even though it’s close in other battleground states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Tester’s baggage from Joe Biden is a further obstacle for him.
Tester, in the summer of 2023 when questions about Biden’s mental health began to grow, went on record defending Biden. He claimed that whenever they were together, Biden “was absolutely 100 percent with it”.
“Joe Biden is absolutely on top of it when I have seen him in the news. He’s got… his cognitive ability, or whatever you call it. I’m not even a doctor, just a dairy farmer. But he is fine. I don’t think people are making it out to be more than it is.”
Sheehy responded as such at the time.
Tester’s fourth Senate run in November may not be “fine”, as I have said in the past.
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