Texas Governor Dismisses GOP Fears as Paxton Trails in Senate Race

Greg Abbott wants everyone to calm down. The Texas governor isn’t buying the panic spreading through Republican circles about Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign, even as the attorney general trails Democrat James Talarico in recent polling and struggles to keep pace in fundraising. When ABC’s Jonathan Karl pressed Abbott on whether Paxton’s baggage and lackluster campaign effort should worry the GOP, the three-term governor essentially shrugged it off.

“Elections are about choices,” Abbott told Karl, and honestly, he’s not wrong about that fundamental truth. But the choice Texas voters face this November isn’t happening in a vacuum. Paxton just emerged from a brutal three-month runoff that drained his resources and attention while Talarico dominated the airwaves unopposed. That’s the context Abbott wants everyone to remember before writing off the Lone Star State as the next domino to fall in Democrats’ electoral fantasies.

Here’s what makes this race particularly messy. The Senate GOP’s fundraising apparatus is still withholding support from Paxton after President Trump orchestrated the ouster of John Cornyn, the Republican incumbent. Cornyn didn’t go quietly either. He called Paxton “the kiss of death” for Republicans and warned of a potential “massacre” if the attorney general became the nominee. Those aren’t gentle criticisms from someone in your own party.

Yet Abbott remains unmoved. He’s running for his fourth term as governor and betting that Texas voters will make what he considers an obvious choice when they see the contrast between the two candidates. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Talarico with just a one-point lead, which means this thing could break either way. The Cook Political Report calls it a toss-up, and you don’t get that designation in Texas very often.

The demographic splits tell an interesting story about where this election is headed. Paxton performs best with white voters and men, the traditional Republican base in Texas. Talarico leads among most black and Hispanic voters, but his advantage with women sits at only one point after some controversial statements about Christianity and transgender issues came back to haunt him. When a Democrat can’t build a substantial lead with women in a competitive race, that’s a problem.

What really matters to Texas voters right now? The economy tops the list at 30 percent, followed by immigration at 19 percent. Republicans unsurprisingly rank immigration as their number one concern at 32 percent, while Democrats and independents both prioritize economic issues above everything else. These are kitchen table concerns, the kind that decide elections when voters actually show up to cast ballots.

But both campaigns can’t resist wading into culture war territory, probably because they know Christian voters will determine this outcome. The Daily Wire recently unearthed video of Talarico making some eyebrow-raising theological claims. He’s on record saying God is “not Christian” and that “Christians and Muslims and Jews all worship the same God.” He went further, claiming Muslims love Jesus and that different faiths are just branches on the same tree.

You can imagine how that plays in a state where evangelical Christianity shapes political identity for millions of voters. Talarico also compared evangelism to forcing alcohol on children, which is the kind of comparison that makes campaign managers want to hide under their desks. His professed “love” for transgender children and documented disdain for the American flag aren’t exactly helping him win over persuadable voters in the middle either.

Abbott’s confidence might seem misplaced given the numbers, but he understands something crucial about Texas politics. This state has disappointed Democrats before, repeatedly. Every election cycle brings predictions of the great blue wave finally crashing over Texas, and every election cycle those predictions fall short. The governor is counting on that pattern holding one more time.

Whether Paxton can overcome his fundraising deficit and personal baggage remains the central question. Abbott argues the attorney general just needs time to pivot from the runoff to the general election. Maybe that’s true. Or maybe Republicans are about to learn an expensive lesson about nominating candidates with serious vulnerabilities in must-win races. November will answer that question definitively, and the whole country will be watching Texas on election night.