Gavin Newsom had one job this week. Kill the California billionaire tax before it reached the November ballot. He failed spectacularly, and his response tells you everything you need to know about the modern Democratic politician who cares more about optics than outcomes.
On Monday, Newsom told the New York Times he was working behind the scenes to keep this economic suicide pill off the ballot. “This will be defeated. There’s no question in my mind,” he said with characteristic confidence. “I’ll do what I have to do to protect the state.” Strong words from a guy who apparently forgot to actually do the thing he promised.
By Friday, the measure was officially headed to voters. Newsom’s grand plan had collapsed. So what did California’s governor do? He pivoted with the grace of a politician who’s never met a principle he couldn’t abandon when convenient. Instead of taking a clear stand against taxing wealth out of existence in his own state, he published a Substack post endorsing a national billionaire tax instead. You can’t make this stuff up.
The logic here is breathtaking in its cowardice. Newsom wrote that fighting for higher taxes on the wealthy shouldn’t happen state by state because billionaires can simply move to Texas or Florida. He’s absolutely right about that, which makes his entire political career even more confusing. “Wealth is moveable, and it shops for the state with the lowest taxes,” he wrote, accidentally making the conservative case for tax competition between states.
Here’s what really happened. Newsom knows the California billionaire tax would devastate his state’s economy. His own Department of Finance confirmed it could generate tens of billions initially but would lead to hundreds of millions in continuing losses as wealthy residents flee. That’s not speculation. That’s math from his own people.
The proposed tax isn’t subtle either. It’s a one-time levy of 5% of a billionaire’s net worth, paid in installments of 1% annually over five years. The Service Employees International Union backing this thing claims 90% of the revenue would offset healthcare cuts from Trump’s budget. Never mind that California’s teachers union is furious because the measure ignores public schools entirely. When socialists design tax policy, coherence tends to take a backseat to class warfare.
Newsom tried to use this education angle as cover for his opposition, saying the measure dedicates almost all revenue to a single spending category. It’s a valid criticism wrapped in obvious political calculation. He’s looking for any argument that doesn’t require him to defend basic economic reality.
The fallout has been predictable and hilarious. Leftist influencer Matt Bernstein captured the frustration perfectly, calling Newsom “the politician of all time” who changes his view three times a week to please whoever he’s speaking to. Even the socialists can smell a phony when he’s this obvious about it.
David Sacks, Trump’s former AI czar and a California tech billionaire, had an even sharper take. He noted that today was supposed to be the day Newsom saved the tech industry by cutting a deal to kill the tax. Instead, Newsom aligned himself with the Democratic Socialists of America, and the measure will appear on the ballot. Sacks added three words that should terrify every California policymaker: “See y’all in Texas!”
That’s the sound of the tax base preparing to exit stage right. When people like Sacks start publicly announcing their departure plans, it’s not a bluff. It’s a preview of the economic exodus that follows when envy becomes policy.
This whole episode reveals something essential about Newsom and politicians like him. They want to appear progressive enough to win Democratic primaries while avoiding the actual consequences of progressive policies. It’s political theater disguised as governance. Newsom knows a state billionaire tax would be catastrophic, but he can’t say that plainly because it would anger his base. So instead he endorses a national version that has zero chance of passing, giving him the appearance of ideological purity without any real risk.
The national billionaire tax he’s backing would face impossible political hurdles even under a Democratic president. Bipartisan opposition would kill it immediately. Newsom knows this. That’s precisely why he chose this route. It’s symbolism for people who don’t understand how anything actually works.
California already has the highest state income tax in the nation. Wealthy residents are already leaving in droves. The state’s population declined for the first time in its history recently, and high taxes are a major reason why. Adding a wealth tax on top of that would accelerate the trend until California’s tax base resembles a ghost town.
But Newsom can’t admit any of this without alienating the progressive activists who control his party. So he does this awkward dance where he opposes the state tax for practical reasons while supporting the national version for political ones. It satisfies nobody and convinces everyone he stands for nothing.
This is what happens when ambition replaces conviction. Newsom wants to be president someday, which means he needs to keep California’s tech billionaires happy while also appeasing the socialist wing that increasingly dominates Democratic politics. Those goals are fundamentally incompatible, so he ends up looking ridiculous to both sides.
The real tragedy here isn’t Newsom’s spinelessness. We expect that from him by now. The tragedy is that California voters might actually pass this thing in November, triggering an economic exodus that will hurt ordinary Californians far more than any billionaire. When the wealthy leave, they take their businesses, their employees, and their tax revenue with them. What remains is a state with massive obligations and a shrinking ability to pay for them.
Newsom had a chance to lead, to explain economic reality to voters, to protect his state from a disastrous policy mistake. Instead, he took the coward’s way out.
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