Larry Sabato is a political analyst and prognosticator. He has updated his House ratings for the November midterms. The Republicans are doing extraordinarily well.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts the outcome of political events and has a loyal following. This website made ten rating changes for House races this week. Nine of them were for Republicans.
I have been preaching since the Dobbs case was decided that it not only affected the pro-life movement but also gave life and energy to the pro-abortion movements. Every poll since the decision was published has shown that neither side won politically.
Sabato’s best estimate for the GOP “red wave size”? It appears likely that the GOP would gain in the 20s.
Recent polls from Fox News and CNN show that Republicans and Democrats are almost equal in their desire to vote. Other polls however show a distinct GOP advantage. A Marquette University Law School survey, which is well-known for its Wisconsin polls found that Republicans have an 18-point advantage in their enthusiasm about voting. However, the same survey showed a narrow GOP advantage when it came down to the certainty to vote. This pool is much larger than the expected voters.
Witchcraft, which is the most popular method of measuring voter enthusiasm, is used. In July 2014, RealClearPolitics’ generic voting average revealed that Republicans had won 247 House seats. This was their largest number since the Great Depression, according to Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s partner.
We are not changing our assessment of House dynamics due to the Dobbs decision. Republicans still have a strong chance of winning with seats remaining. To flip the House, they will need 5 additional seats (213) in 2019. We don’t think that any lower would be a problem for Democrats given the political climate. They would be in a position where they could hold the Republicans to a smaller House majority (lower than 230s or even 220s), which could make them vulnerable to the 2024 election.
It would take a lot to win 30 House seats. Representation of the House is made so that each party has a large potential majority. There are many districts in the country with strong competitiveness.
Some districts could be more competitive because of the national political climate and the fact that they are tied to an unpopular president. Instead of flipping the mid-terms, the GOP could flip 30-35 House seats.
The Senate can be a completely different entity than the House and is much more unpredictable. Republicans have greater chances of winning than Democrats making it possible to get a majority in the Senate.