The Polling on Abortion Continues to Make No Sense

Roe v. Wade’s overturning is now in the rearview mirror. The news cycle shifts back to January 6th (because, what else?) and a recent mass shooting took place in Illinois.

The issue is still a hot topic for pollsters, who seem to enjoy producing results that criticize the landmark Supreme Court decision. We are repeatedly told that Americans do not support ending Roe (and Casey), in favor of Dobbs.

But is this really true? It is obvious that polling on abortion makes no sense. I will show you the Harvard/Harris poll.

These results are just mind-numbing because they are nothing but a ball of contradictions. 55 percent do not approve of the overturning of Roe. Yet, 44 percent, a plurality, believe that states should be able to make their own laws regarding abortion.

But the biggest “huh” moment comes when you see that 72 percent (!) of Americans believe that abortion should be banned after 15 weeks. Guess that that requires? The overturning of Roe (and Casey).

We have more than a supermajority for a provision that demands the end of something they do not support. It’s mind-numbing.

Are Americans really that dumb? Are they being fed misinformation so often that they don’t know they have contradictory views? The majority of the time, I believe the answer to that is the latter. The media have relentlessly attempted to conflate Roe’s ending with a federal ban on abortion, which simply does not exist. The pollsters often make it as inflammatory as possible when asking about specific court decisions.

Despite the contradictory results of the poll, we can see that Americans are more aligned with the Republican position than they are with the Democrats. Currently, the Democrat Party platform plank of abortion is supported by almost everyone. Moreover, and perhaps most important, the notion that the Supreme Court decision will drive Democrat enthusiasm is false. Both Republicans and Democrats are within a few points of one another in the poll on whether Dobbs would make them more likely to vote for their respective parties. A full 29 percent said it won’t (which I believe is the most likely outcome).

Let me conclude by speculating that Republicans are winning this issue. While polls show decreasing support for Roe, the issue polling is overwhelming in favor of the GOP position. It’s clear that this is not going to be a major factor in November’s midterms. This is terrible news for the Democrat Party, which desperately needed a game-changer.