New Kaplan Poll Reveals Ramaswamy, DeSantis Tied Behind Trump

In the latest Kaplan Strategies poll, 48 percent of Republican respondents surveyed said they supported Donald J. Trump as the Republican candidate for president. Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech investor with 11 percent of the vote, Florida Governor Rick Scott and former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis have 10 percent and Vice President Michael R. Pence has 8 percent.

The top four were followed by former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (4%); former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (4%); South Carolina Senator Tim Scott (2%); North Dakota Governor. Doug Burgum (1%) and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson. Thirteen percent said they weren’t sure about their choice.

Trump’s popularity has remained steady since the Kaplan poll conducted in July when he was also rated at 48 percent.

The evolving narrative shows that DeSantis is losing MAGA to Ramaswamy, and mainstream conservative support to Pence,” Doug Kaplan, president of Kaplan Strategies conducted the poll among 800 likely Republican voters on August 9 and 10. The margin of error for the poll is 3.5 percentage points.

Trump was the only candidate with a higher percentage of undecided voters than any other. Pence had 15 percent, DeSantis 16 percent, and Ramaswamy 36 percent. Kaplan stated:

The dynamics have been shaped by Vivek Ramaswamy’s rise to second and Governor DeSantis’ pursuit, closely followed, then, by Vice President Pence’s advances.

Trump had the highest percentage of 30-49 year-olds, at 55 percent. Ramaswamy had the strongest age group at 18-29, with 16 percent. DeSantis had a 13 percent rating for the 65-and-older age group. Pence’s age group with the highest percentage was 50-66.

Kaplan believes that DeSantis’s strategy of focusing on Iowa first, despite losing support at home, could be a mistake.

“Historical precedent shows that an Iowa win doesn’t guarantee success in the long run, as past winners like Pete Buttigieg and Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum have shown, ultimately losing their campaigns over the last fifteen years.”

Kaplan said he sees movement in the favorable-unfavorable rating compared to his July poll.

“Trump is still highly popular among Republican primary voters. 62 percent of them express approval, while 35 percent voice unfavorable views. The figures are down from 69 to 29 percent in July.

“Pence’s favorability is down to 40-45 percent from the 56-35 percent it was in July.

“Shifts also appear for DeSantis whose favorability is now 53 percent-32, previously 59 cent-30 percent in August, and Ramaswamy’s 44 percent-19, previously 56 cent-17 percent in the month of July.”

The pollster stated that he expects things to be more settled after the first debate on August 23, which will take place in Milwaukee, hosted by the Republican National Committee.