Harris Bets on Texas Senate Prize, Teams Up with Beyoncé

Democrats face a steep uphill battle to maintain control of the US Senate as the election season for 2024 approaches its final weeks. The party is defending close races in the US, and there’s little room for error.

 

They may be hoping to unseat Senator Ted Cruz from Texas, who is the gatekeeper of substantive legislation as well as responsible for confirmations of Supreme Court justices and presidential appointees.

 

Texas is a place where Democrats are unlikely to put their trust. In the last three decades, no Democrat has won a Texas election. Democrats have always felt that the Lone Star State was just out of their reach, and they’ve raised their hopes for it only to be shattered on election day.

 

Texas’ government is a constant source of right-wing policies, including those on abortion, immigration, education, and other culturally sensitive issues. Jimmy Carter was the last Democratic presidential candidate who won there in 1976.

 

Cruz, a two-term incumbent, has a nationwide network of supporters dating back to his 2016 campaign for the Republican Presidential nomination. He won Iowa’s caucuses in 2016 with evangelical support and finished second behind Donald Trump.

 

Former corporate lawyer and Supreme Court Clerk has built up a reputation in the Senate as a conservative firebrand, advocating government shutdowns to further his political goals and engaging in heated debates during committee hearings and in media appearances.

 

In spite of all this, Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala is in Houston, Texas on Friday. She will be holding a rally alongside the party’s Senate Candidate, Congressman Colin Allred.

 

She will also perform with Beyonce at the Major League Soccer stadium in the city for the first performance of this campaign.

 

Just a little over a week before the election, it’s an important investment of time and resources. The public opinion polls show that Allred and Cruz are in a close race – within the margin of error for some surveys, and much closer than the contest in which Donald Trump and Harris competed in the state.

 

Allred is a three-term Congressman from the Dallas region. He was a college football star at Baylor University, Waco, Texas, and a former NFL athlete. He was a member of the Obama administration prior to running for office.

 

Cruz is not popular in Texas, despite his many political achievements. When he ran for re-election for the second time in 2018, he defeated Democrat Beto o’Rourke by less than 3%.

 

In 2021, he was criticized for visiting Cancun in Mexico while parts of Texas were without power due to a winter storm that set a new record.

 

 

This matchup will raise Democratic hopes – once again.

 

On Thursday afternoon in Spring, Texas a steady flow of Texans voted early for the 5 November elections. Many Texans said that they supported Trump and Cruz primarily due to the economy and because of their views regarding undocumented immigration. Harris supporters in this suburb of northern Houston were cautiously optimistic.

 

Leona Fuller said, “Cruz has a sloppy attitude.” “He called Trump many names [during the 2016 presidential election] and now he is pro-Trump. You can’t lead people or be effective as a leader if you do this.

 

Floyd Guidry III voted in his first election after turning 18 and said that he had written a report for high school on Allred’s proposals. He was especially drawn to Allred’s calls for criminal justice reform.

 

Floyd’s dad, who voted with him, said, “It is time for a change.” It doesn’t matter if you are a Democrat or Republican.

 

Many political experts have doubts, however.

 

Miles Coleman is the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, located at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. He rates the race as “likely Republican”.

 

He said that Texas would become a “toss-up” state in the future, due to demographic changes as it becomes more diverse and younger. “But I do not see it happening this year for Democrats.”

 

The chances for the Democrats to control the Senate are very limited.

 

Currently, they hold 51 of the 100 seats. They can afford to lose only one seat if they win the presidential election (a very big IF). If Trump wins, a net loss of seats for the Democratic Party will give the chamber to the Republicans. Vice President JD Vance would be the tie-breaker.

 

This year’s map is not good for Democrats.

 

This year, 34 of the 100 senators who serve six-year terms are up for election. Democrats are defending 24 seats, in part because of their overperformance in 2012 and 2018.

 

Trump won easily in Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia.

 

It is a virtual certainty that the West Virginia seat vacated by former centrist Democrat Joe Manchin will be won by Republicans. Three-term incumbent Jon Tester in Montana has been behind the polls for months.

 

Five other Democratic-controlled seats are in states that are considered toss-ups in this year’s presidential race – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Three of these states have Democratic incumbents seeking reelection. In two of the states, a new senator is seeking to replace a retiring senator.

 

Most of the Republican seats are located in conservative states such as North Dakota, Wyoming, and Mississippi. Democrats are only within striking distance in Florida and Cruz’s Texas.

 

In Nebraska, a state that is known for its conservatism, independent candidate Dan Osborne is running a close race against the incumbent Republican Deb Fisher. Osborne is not sure if he would vote for a Democratic majority in the event that he won.

 

 

Mr Coleman stated that incumbents can become lazy in states with a high level of safety. “Deb Fisher hasn’t faced a difficult race since her first election.”

 

Democrats are more concerned about the fact that in only one of the last two presidential election cycles – Maine in 2020-, a state has voted for both a president and senator from the same party.

 

Coleman said that if this trend continues, Democrats will have very little hope. This could explain why Democrats are spending more money on incumbents in states that are considered battlegrounds, as opposed to supporting candidates in Republican-friendly Texas or Florida.

 

The Democratic Senate majority leader’s political action Committee spent over $15m (PS11.5m), in just one week, on advertising for Ohio and Pennsylvania elections. In Texas, the committee spent $60,000.

 

The Democratic Party is more concerned with maximizing the number of seats they can hold after the elections than maximizing their target.

 

He noted that the money the party had moved into Texas thus far was just “a drop in the bucket” for such a vast state.

 

What are Harris and Beyonce doing in Texas then? Coleman says that it allows the Democrats to focus the attention of the nation on the strict anti-abortion law in Texas – a subject where polls show they have a clear advantage over Republicans.

 

Even if Allred does not win, a strong showing in the race against Cruz would help the Democratic Party of the state build an infrastructure that will allow them to become more competitive.

 

This may not be the message Texas Democrats hoping to win in this election year, or loyalists of their party who want to keep the Senate would like to hear.

 

It may be that the reality of the situation is a cold and hard one for the party as the election approaches.