Kari Lake is expected to announce her Senate bid in the near future. There have been long-standing rumors that Lake is considering a Senate run. She was also said to be aiming to become Donald Trump’s running partner in 2024. If she enters the race, polling shows that Lake is the clear frontrunner in the GOP nomination.
Her interest in the seat is largely what has frozen the GOP field, currently held by Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.). Blake Masters, Arizona’s Senate nominee for 2022, is reportedly stalling after having planned to enter the race back in September. According to a source familiar with Lake’s plans, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they wanted to be candid, there is no date for Lake to launch her campaign. However, it will most likely happen in October. Arizona is a key swing state that could decide control of the Senate. Sinema switched to being an independent last summer, which shook up the race for her position. She hasn’t said whether she will run for reelection, but Democratic Rep. Ruben Galego already started a Senate campaign.
Lake was once my ideal candidate for the U.S. Senate. That moment is long gone. Ruben Gallego, a D-Ariz. representative who has already entered the race is currently leading the polls. Sinema’s decision to become an independent is a wild card. Sinema, one of the least popular senators in America, is still leading the polls if you include her in match-up polls for the general election.
Lake is not a candidate I am confident in. She was once leading in the general election polls, but now her approval rating is low. In a recent poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, registered Arizona voters gave Lake a disapproval rate of 51% compared to 35%.
Independents also don’t like her. Arizona voters have been sour on her because of her efforts to contest the results of gubernatorial elections. Recent polls show that Republican Marty Lamb who is already running in the race has a greater chance of beating Gallego.
Polls show that Sinema will actually garner more Republican support than Democrats if she runs for reelection.
It appears that Senator Sinema draws more Republican support than Democrats when he is on the ballot. Spencer Kimball of Emerson College Polling said that last month, 21% of Republicans were likely to vote for Sinema if Lamb was on the ballot and 34% if Wright was on the ballot. Gallego is only able to pull about 8% Democratic support for Sinema.
The only positive is that if Trump is nominated, Lake will not be Trump’s running-mate. Unfortunately, I believe Lake’s entrance into the race will make it much more difficult to win this seat from the Democrats.