The future of the Republican House is now in doubt after a major Supreme Court decision on Thursday. Alabama’s congressional maps were declared unconstitutional by the 5-4 ruling, in which Justice Brett Kavanaugh joined the liberals on the court (NBC News).

Click here to read the full decision in Allen V. Milligan.

The Supreme Court struck down Republican-drawn congressional districts in Alabama, which civil rights activists claim discriminated against Black Voters in a surprising reaffirmation of the landmark Voting Right Act.

In a 5-4 decision, the court ruled against Alabama. This means that the map of seven congressional districts will be redrawn to reflect the new ruling. The current map heavily favors Republicans. The court’s liberals were joined by Chief Justice John Roberts as well as Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

Kavanaugh’s arguments with the majority were based on four main points. Kavanaugh’s two main arguments revolve around intent, and whether redistricting based on race violates the Constitution. Kavanaugh said that the VRA does not only require a test for intent but also a test for effect. This was done to counter Alabama’s assertion that courts should use race-neutral simulations to settle disputes. Kavanaugh also argued, on the second point, that redistricting based on race criteria did not violate the US Constitution.

The four other conservatives dissented, with Justice Neil Gorsuch suggesting that the VRA has now been sent down a “perilous path,” while Justice Clarence Thomas had the following to say.

“Alabama intentionally redrew its longstanding congressional district so that black voters could control a number of seats roughly proportional with the black share in the State’s populations.” “Section 2 does not require such a thing and the Constitution would not allow it if it did”.

This ruling reverses the trend of the high court to further limit the VRA. Ironically, Chief Justice John Roberts started this trend. Today’s waters are murkier than yesterday’s, and Republicans appear to have reached a limit in terms of how far they will go.

In terms of the damage to their electoral chances, Republicans hold only a narrow majority in the House of Representatives. This majority has been made even more fragile by the recent arrest of Rep. George Santos on fraud charges. This means that every district is important and the ruling could make the difference between winning or losing in 2024.

This will affect at least two Alabama seats, which are both easily won by Democrats. The precedent that a race-based district drawing does not violate the US Constitution is sure to be used by future Republicans to challenge other Republican-drawn districts. Already, there are rumblings that challenges could be successful in Louisiana and South Carolina.

This means that the GOP will have to get more aggressive in state legislatures where they can. North Carolina and Ohio are two places where Republicans can redraw the seats. These moves must be implemented quickly to avoid a flood of changes in Alabama and New York that could wipe out the gains made in 2022.